Value Bet : Successful sports betting
For those who love strategy and value event analysis, the value bet is one of the fundamentals to master. It takes you out of your routine as a cautious and reasonable tipster. This effort will allow you to maximize your winnings, but with a little patience in store. Here are some important tips to help you understand this strategy.
What is a value bet?
What you need to know is that value betting is a kind of mispricing by the bookmaker that can make you a lot of money. In plain English, this technique amounts to betting on the outcome of an event with incorrectly estimated odds.
Your bet will only become value when the probability of success is normally and obviously higher than the estimated one. Although it does not increase your chances of winning, it is a method that allows you to increase your winnings considerably.
How can you benefit from it?
The most effective way to find and benefit from a value bet is to trust your own analysis. This is based on a good knowledge of sports betting and well-honed analysis techniques. Then, use a betting guide to learn the rather simple calculations to spot the opportunity.
- Example 1:
Based on your analysis and expertise, you estimate that Team A has a 40% (0.4 or 2:5) chance of beating Team B. This gives 1/0.4 = 2.5. In the meantime, the odds given by the bookmaker to team A are @2.7. 2.5 is less than 2.7, so it is a value.
- Example 2:
Team A is playing Team B and you decide to bet on Team B. You think that Team B has an 87% chance of winning the match. Your bookmaker sets the odds for team B at 1.9. The calculation is then (1.9 x 100)/87 = 2.19. The result is greater than 1, so you have a value bet. Once you have learned this technique, winning at sports betting becomes easier.
Estimating the probability of an event occurring: how to do it?
The starting point of the calculation to detect a value bet starts with the estimation of the probability of an event. It is at this precise stage that the difficulty in determining this technique lies. However, don't panic! As mentioned above, it is all about analysis.
For a bettor, it is necessary to have a thorough knowledge of betting and to specialise in a sport or two. Then, your analysis will lead you to study the matches in detail: player physical form, fitness, playing conditions, calendar, history of team or player encounters, personal event, ranking, and statistics. Everything must be reviewed in order to effectively assess the probability of an event occurring.
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